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October 29th, 2008 at 8:26 pm

Rate cuts.

Word for the day are rate cuts. Cuts, cuts and more cuts. FED lowered the rate to 1%, China to 6.66% and there is talk from Japan about possible drop of the rates, although BOJ doesn’t have all that room to maneuver, since there is not much in term of rates to begin with. And, frankly, now FED is also scraping the bottom of the barrel. On top of that loans to central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore were announced, each $30 Billion. 
There was not much movement when the decision was made public. We will read in Thursday’s papers very insightful explanation that “rate cyt was already factored in”. Personally, I avoid trading USD pairs during these times, so I never really worry about how the market responds.
I’ve been following JPY crosses for some time, with my daily GBP-JPY trades reported here. So far this pair has bounced over 2000 pips from last weeks low, and AUD-JPY over 1200. These are good size bounces, even compared to preceding sell off. It is possible, this will come to a halt here. But more about later.
My GBP-JPY trades from Wednesday.
gbp-jpy-10-29.jpg  
Total of three trades and they all came to a conclusion very fast. First one made 100 pips, than I lost 70 pips, followed later by a gain of 150 pips. The first trade surprised me with it’s speed, but what is even better, spreads were almost normal and no slippage. Seems like trading conditions are getting more stable. For now.
AUD-NZD buy order I highlighted yesterday was triggered.
aud-nzd-10-29.jpg
The breakout finally materialized. Now I have to sit on it for a while, since this is 4H charts.
Potentially promising situation is unfolding in GBP-NZD, so I will give it a try.
gbp-nzd-10-29.jpg
Move above 2.8265 indicates objective of of about 2.8550. Very simple breakout, not much to comment on.
Tomorrow I will not discuss short term trades in GBP-JPY, but rather take a look at a little longer time frame and run couple of possible scenarios of what is next there. It is not easy, charts are overextended and fundamentals comfusing, but I’ll give a try.

Mike K.

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2
  • 1

    I really like the short term GBP-JPY trades you take. Can you elaborate more on them?

    jason on November 3rd, 2008
  • 2

    Those are simple breakouts above previous minor highs. I try to take them during the most active hours, and I prefer areas where there was previous failed breakout.

    admin on November 3rd, 2008

 

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