With Christmas just behind, and it was very nice Christmas for me, it is time to look at next holiday in the calendar- New Year’s Day. It just few days away. Once again most brokers will be closed late on 12.31.2008 and/or 1.1.2009, just like last Thursday. Specifics will very, so check with your broker. Even though these holidays are just one week apart, days following them show different activity patterns. Historically, day after Christmas is very slow, with not much happening. This year on the 26th, Friday, currencies were a little more active than on average, but nowhere near the level of volatility than the preceding week. I for one skipped trading, and don’t feel as if I missed anything. Seems like entire week was slow. Things will likely change now. More activity can be expected, including the first trading day of 2009, which is going to be Friday, the 2nd. More often than not, this day is worth trading, with rather large moves. I have some snap shots from last year. These are very large images so I hosted them elsewhere. Here are the links.
EUR-USD
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5505/eurusd0103408vx4.jpg  
GBP-JPY
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/3880/gbpjpy0103408gh6.jpg
CAD-CHF
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/3153/cadchfjan1ps7.jpg
GBP-AUD
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/8365/gbpaudjan1zx5.jpg

Of course, just because last year was eventful, doesn’t guarantee large moves now, but I like the probabilities of increased activity. So I plan on trading. The only problem I see with this scenario is, that it being Friday, a lot of market participants will have a long weekend again. After all, one must rest after New Year’s Eve festivities.

Mike K.