As a New Year present, Russia has decided to cut natural gas delivery to its neighbor, Ukraine. One has to understand that this is the major holiday in both countries involved, equivalent of Christmas elsewhere. Time to exchange gifts. There you have it, from Russia, with love. The move came in an apparent attempt to recover unpaid gas bill from Ukraine. Also, dispute about future price is cited as a reason. Both countries were quick to assure that deliveries to Europe will continue uninterrupted. While Russia’s reasoning may very well be valid, observers point out to other, politically motivated objectives behind the move. One only has to wonder, is this the way of the future, when GOPEC (gas OPEC) is fully formed? I’m not part of this “Let’s bash Russia” crowd, only find timing of this move, well, peculiar.
First trading day of the year turned out to relatively active, as far as price movement goes. Trading platforms opened at different times and some showed large gaps. These were not the kind of gaps I trade, they were not evident on platforms which opened earlier. Nonetheless this early activity was a little confusing, so I largely set on my hands. On the time frames that are featured here in this blog I found only one nice breakout ( one I participated in that is), buy in CAD-JPY.

My target was higher, but decided to close it here, at 75.59 and call it a day. Earlier in the week in post Opportunities I outlined a trade in AUD-JPY. That set up was on 4H charts and had relatively large objective. This trade is currently under way, order was filled. I will update the progress as warranted. Also, no new trades in EUR-GBP, but I will cover it in more details over the weekend. Looking for more trades on short side.
Tomorrow I will look at possible long term trades in few crosses. Kind of what will happen in 2009 predictions. Check this site tomorrow.
Mike K.




Russia is very neighbourly, isn’t she?
It wouldn’t be the first time…
Why is everybody hanging dogs on Russia over this? Any other country would do the same if receiver of goods stopped paying. I don’t remember exactly, but we are talking about some seriuos money here.Normal course of doing business.
Hi Mike. At this time of the year everybody is making all kinds of predictions for next year. Given your track record from the trades you post here, it would be nice to see some of your views. I’m sure to not be alone to appreciate comments about larger picture. Thanks.
Maxim, I’m not promoting any anti- Russian sentiment. I simply find timing of this move as full of irony.
Bob, I will post a view on couple of crosses in next update.