From depression to elation. | fxmadness.com
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January 26th, 2009 at 11:46 am

From depression to elation.

I love internet. The almost immediate access to information, not having had to wait for tomorrow newspaper, continues update throughout the day. Let’s not forget the possibility of trading financial markets (for better or worse). But there is one thing that internet publishing has very much in common with other media – can be just as bombastic and alarmist. This is all, of course, reflection of human emotions. Both writers and readers respond to developing events in similar way by more or less overstating their importance. Jumping from one extreme to another is also common. What the hell is all this about? Well, today’s headlines about the Pound. As recently as Friday media was ready to bury Sterling. Comments were so depressing as if last nail was being driven into the coffin and grave was being dug. What a difference weekend makes. This is what I found today:
“Sterling sell off overdone!”
“Pound fights back on Barclay’s statement!”
“British bruising might be over”.
If it continues in this fashion, by sunset I might be informed that Pound is in the middle of rally of a lifetime.From depression to elation. But seriously, does it mean that the sentiment is changing or is it more like a prayer? Do the reporters try to mold public opinion or are simply expressing what the masses what to hear? Since there is so much GBP coverage maybe I should stop bubbling about it and move to, say, Canadian Dollar? Perhaps, but not today.
Pound showed some signs of life, but no as much as what would think after reading some of the news updates. Initially it had  even weakened before it staged a respectable run.
eur-gbp-01-26-e.jpg
When EUR-GBP made new high on this chart, I moved sell order to under most recent low. Finally the price moved my way and trade was opened at 0.9440. target was changed to 75 pips, above possible support, where my initial sell was. Turned out to be fast trade. Once the price ran up I went short again at the same level 0.9440. This trade is still live. My target is once more 0.9365 or 75 pips. Possible important development on 1H chart is the emergence of the 0.9335 region as a very strong support (blue line). Chances are that IF that goes, following move should also be swift. That’s why I have another sell order there, with 100 pips objective. But we are not there yet. First, current trade has to reach conclusion.
I’m also placing a buy order in GBP-CHF.
gbp-chf-01-26.jpg
This one is at 1.6165 with 300 pips objective. Admittedly, it is unlikely to play out tomorrow, GBP is falling again. All the cheers might have been premature. But it will not hurt to have an order in this area for now. I can always move it.
NZD-JPY from yesterday is still valid although this cross is jumping like a yo-yo, trying to decide which way to go. So does AUD-JPY which shows possible good long entry at 59.60. I hope this hoopla about Pound’s resurrection didn’t jinx it. After all, press rarely, if ever, gets these things right.

Mike K.

6
  • 1

    Mike, I understand that you try to focus on non Dollar pairs here. I’m just curious, do you trade USD at all? EUR-USD and others are moving a lot lately. Don’t you feel like you are missing out on these moves?

    Maxim on January 26th, 2009
  • 2

    Maxim is right. You are doing very good trading crosses, but how is USD trading going for you? Do you use the same methods?

    Michelle on January 26th, 2009
  • 3

    Guys, I very much trade USD. As a matter of fact I take many more trades with Dollar, than the crosses. I have a separate account for each important USD pair and most of them are traded using mechanical systems, which I don’t cover here. I will take a snap shot of EUR-USD trades from Monday and last Friday, one chart, and post it in next update. That’s if there isn’t much to talk about regarding trades followed here.

    admin on January 26th, 2009
  • 4

    I’d say Pound situation is so bleak that the press is happy to jump all over any crumb of good news. After all headlines sell the content.

    Heather on January 26th, 2009
  • 5

    Heather, you are right. Only I find it rather funny. At least it seemed this morning.

    admin on January 26th, 2009
  • 6

    I was the one standing by to dig the grave. You are hilarious, mate. As always.

    Alex on January 26th, 2009

 

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