It is not all depressing. | fxmadness.com
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February 27th, 2009 at 11:31 am

It is not all depressing.

From every corner of the world and every media source bad news are just pouring at us like from a busted dam. Not a shred of anything positive.  We just learned economy shrank at fastest pace in 26 years, our deficit is at record level and bound to get worse. Japanese production fell 10%, exports are evaporating as fast as hope for speedy end to this situation. List of negative numbers hitting the wires is seemingly endless. They range from bad to lamentable to abysmal. Frankly after few months of that, one would think that everybody would be immune to it. Perhaps we are. There are no wide spread reports of people jumping of high buildings, in spite of encouragement to do just that for financial professionals. For those who don’t know what I mean, see February issue of “Futures” magazine. They have a picture of somebody picketing on Wall Street with large sign which says “Jump! You fxxxxrs!”. 
At any rate, instead of getting depressed I decided to take more upbeat view of the situation. Current economic conditions create a lot of volatility in all financial markets. This should be welcome by active traders. With February coming to an end, today is the last trading day, it is time take stock of my results. They were not as good as January’s. Reason was very simple- last month was extremely good, way above any average. Over last few weeks my trading was more typical for me, with more loosing trades, but winners did prevail. In the end, if the rest of the year is at this level, I will be very happy. Although I don’t use much leverage for trades featured here, accounts dedicated to discretionary trading still enjoyed high double digits gains. Good enough for me.
Didin’t get into too many trades today. As stated yesterday, was looking for easy day. Well, my primary broker experienced some connectivity issues, so even less trades were taken. No short term trading the beast on 5M chart. But I took this trade using hourly chart.
gbp-jpy-02-27-e.jpg
Beast behaved like GBP-CHF last few days and this level appeared to be solid floor. Well, next spike almost shook me out. At any rate, just closed it about an hour ago for 194 pips. Was hoping it would get to previous highs, or about. Not today.
I also kept on GBP-CHF with the trade from yesterday.
gbp-chf-02-27-e.jpg
As we can see price have not reached level of the 1.6803 buy. I entered earlier, at about the same time that GBP-JPY. I’m done trading, so closed it for 90 pips profit. BTW, order above 1.68 is still valid . Must say, Pound has been good to me lately, even if not to the degree expected…
So, there are ways to stay positive in face of imploding news. One more “record low”- this time Swedish Krona sank to new depth against Euro. Perhaps one could find a way to make few bucks there? I will take a look at EUR-SEK over next few days and maybe give it a shot.

Mike K.

EminiForecaster.com

8
  • 1

    Hi Mike, what is your tolerance on the drawbacks? Looks like the two above trades were in red before going to profit.

    GJTrader on February 27th, 2009
  • 2

    It is different from trade to trade and from time frame to time frame. For example, GBP-JPY was at 136.15, but target was at 141.50. When you look at at the chart, if the large hammer(third candle after entry) closed in a lower part of its range, I would be out. If it was not Friday, and getting to near closing, I would still be in it.
    Trades in this blog are not systematic, but discretionary and I use few different set ups so every trade is different. Sometimes I have very tight stops, but on average ( if it could everaged out) s/l is about 2/3 of objective. I prefer to have more winners than loosers so I give trades breathing room. Besides, leverage used is very low, for the trades in the blog is 1:1 or 2:1. Rarely more, so equity swings are not big.

    admin on February 27th, 2009
  • 3

    OK, double digits return. I know that you are using few acoounts, and not all trades are covered in the blog, but is it possible to say what was the draw down? I’d like to put in perspective for myself.

    Michelle on February 27th, 2009
  • 4

    I’m looking forward to seeimg your opinion on SEK. Maybe the other nordic currencies, too?

    Renata on February 27th, 2009
  • 5

    Michelle, draw downs were small, 4-7%, if that. But it will not always be this nice. It is not uncommon for me to get into 15% drops.

    admin on February 28th, 2009
  • 6

    I don’t know, Renata, not going to make any promises.

    admin on February 28th, 2009
  • 7

    Friday was rough. Just like you were saying all week. Do you think the flow will change soon? I find it difficult to trade.

    Stan on February 28th, 2009
  • 8

    Mike, do you have a link to this “Jump” picture? I can’t find it and would like to see it if possible.

    B.J on February 28th, 2009

 

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