Earlier in the year, when Boeing announced a trim in payroll, my “source” within the company(he,he,) told me to expect more by summer, because they will not be able to deliver all ordered planes. At that time Boeing denied any rumors about cancelled deliveries, but pledged financial assistance to customers who might need it. This could turned out to be not enough. While no new official lay-off’s have been announced, there is solid evidence now that some airlines can’t finalize purchases of new airplanes. “White tails” have been spotted at Boeing facilities. These are planes that have been built, but have no takers, intended customers being unable to pay for them. At least 2 of wide body jets, freighters, can be seen in Everett. Additional 2 were flown not to customers, but to be parked in Arizona desert. At least 5 single aisle 737s are completed but not received by new owners. All this creates financial holdup for Boeing, cutting down future production (announced last month) and ultimately leading to more employment cuts.
This is indicative of the sad state global commerce is in. The wide body freighters were intended for Air France’s cargo unit and LoadAir, among the biggest freight air carriers in the world. If these companies are forced to abandon brand new airplanes, things are not good indeed. Where does it fit into what I’m doing, currency speculation? In itself it’s of marginal use, and if it wasn’t local news for me, no attention would be given to it. But I have been doing my weekly charts analysis today and yesterday, and certain things are becoming apparent. Some were mentioned yesterday, in The Yen conundrum post. Looks like after decent runs, the commodities currencies, most notably NZD and AUD, are coming under pressure. Coincidentally, these would also be two economies among the most effect ones by drop in air cargo deliveries. Both of these currencies look vulnerable here. Not long term, but intermediate, next few weeks or so. Here is an example.

New Zealand dollar looks a little weak to me. Kiwi has enjoyed good run for a while but now it is building reversal patterns against most other currencies. EUR-NZD shows couple of decent opportunities to go long Euro. I’m placing two buy orders, one at 2.267o, risking about 300 pips, seeking a little less than 500 or so. Should the price move above 2.32, I want to be long there as well. Objective is also about 500 pips. This cross has moved this much, and more, in one day before, but I don’t expect such rapid outcome. Given the fact that 4H chart is used, most likely duration for these trades is 1-2 weeks or so. For the record, I don’t think that neither NZD nor AUD will reach new lows, rather a pullback in major uptrend for both of them.
As always on Sunday, I’m looking for opening gaps. That was explained in Exploiting weekend gaps as well as other posts. Friday closing was lackluster and gave no indication of possible action at the open. Also, no big news erupted over the weekend, that I’m aware of, so what happens at in a few hours is anybody’s guess.

Mike K.