When one enters into a trade there are a lot of variables to consider. Point of entry is perhaps the most obvious one. Target, or objective, how far we expect price to move. Stop loss, fixed or mental, where we admit that we were wrong and cut losses. Size of the trade and the leverage used, how much are we willing to risk and how much is expected to be made. These are the most recognized elements of a trade making decision, but there are more. One of them is duration of a trade. How long the trade is expected to take..
Perhaps it is not critical to an investor, somebody who is willing to “sit” on a security for an undetermined long haul. Which is fine. This person is seeking returns consistent with some kind of overall market indexes, believes them to be above average, but doesn’t know how long this will take. Active trader should have a better grasp on this part of trading. After all, money shouldn’t be tied up forever in a nonperforming trade. So, one ought to develop a way to determine the length of expected transaction. It doesn’t need to be precise, nobody knows the future, but having educated opinion will be very helpful in planing strategies.
Since my activity as a whole is a simplified version of swing trading, I also use that theory to determine time objectives. Swing trading is based on a premise that market moves in a more less symmetrical way. Size of a move down, for example, will determine size of correction or reversal. And vice verse. The trick is recognizing the “dominant swing” which dictates all calculations. The most recent one usually serves the purpose. Same principle applies to time analysis and prediction. Here is an example using  daily GBP-JPY chart.

On this chart I focus on price movement from A to B to C. At point C the previous minor high A is violated, and this indicates to me that chances are high for a continued move up. These swings would dictate target maybe as high as 180 or so, but for now I’m looking for 162-63 area, that also happens to be a possible resistance at previous high. The swing theory suggests that highest point for that move should be reached no longer than what it took previous formation to complete. I’m getting clues from the A-B-C move, which was completed at C. So, that formation lasted from A to C. One can count number of candles between these to points, add them to C and have a projected length for highest point for the move up to reached. In this example I expect to reach target no later than in August, but hopefully sooner. This doesn’t give me precise timing, but a solid idea. By the way, I see it as worst case scenario. If I’m OK with an estimated length on a trade, I’ll take it.
These days charting applications are available which make this process simple and easy. One of them are the Fibonacci projection lines.

Any values can be set for the projection. To make it compatible with swing theory, 100% projection, or extension, is used here to come up with a maximum expectation for the trade. It also falls sometime in August. Even more interesting tools are available, Fibonacci circles.

This tool also uses A-B-C as bases for calculation. The maximum extension of 100% also gives the same time frame for the trade as previous 2 methods- August.

Here I plotted my first target of 162-63 on top of the circles.
And here are couple of possibilities of how it will unfold.



The August time frame marks maximum length I’m willing to give the price to reach the first objective. If it takes longer, it would indicate that the move up is not as my analysis suggest. Current strategy would be abandoned and other clues would be sought, perhaps on a different chart.
I don’t use these Fibonacci tools myself, favor swing analysis, but they are very similar. They don’t guarantee that the expected outcome will happen during this time, but provide enough guidance to be useful.  Real key is recognizing which price movement(swings) should be used for projections, and that takes some experience. They are not always as easy to spot as in the example above.

Mike K.