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May 11th, 2009 at 8:56 am

Currencies are moving.

Week started on a slow note. Asian session was sleep inducing, a little unusual of late. Last few months provided rather lively Sunday opening, so this one stands out. Truth be told, that is how currencies had been behaving historically after the weekend. Perhaps markets are slowly lowering volatility to more average levels. I know, volatility is already lower that just few weeks ago, but these levels are still elevated on long term historical bases. Traditionally, barring any shocking news, currencies had not been moving until the start of European session. Just like last night.
Things started to happen at that time. Both USD and JPY got stronger. Especially hard hit were GBP-JPY which lost 350 pips, but the moves were reasonably large in most currency pairs and lasted fairly long. I like this trading environment. With the exception of long term trend traders, it should have been good for most other market participants. Since I mentioned the Yen, here is a piece from Japan, not really Forex related. Much vilyfied  AIG managed to sell one of its properties, which happens to be their Japanese headquarters, located next to the Imperial Palace. The property consists of about one acre of land. Sounds like super prime real estate to me, which was reflected in the price - $1.2 Billion.  AIG had been trying to shed pieces for some time now, without much success. This may be a sign that the garage sale is taking off. At last.
I had only one order previously discussed in this blog. It was a buy in EUR-CAD. One trade was taken already and today the breakout buy order was filled.
eur-cad-05-11.jpg
Target is 200 pips. In all honesty, I don’t expect very fast conclusion. The way price is behaving, it indicates consolidation now. It very well might take another day or two in order to realize any farther gains. Patience testing trade, not because of duration, but rather the manner of movement. Kind of like two steps forward, one step back. Staying with it for now.
Pound sold off again, but couple of its pairs looked like finding support couple of hours ago. One of them is GBP-CHF, which I bought at 1.6727.
gbp-chf-05-11-e.jpg
My objective is 100-110 pips, just under most recent high. And, for those who are bullish GBP-CHF for any longer than couple of days, this high will better be breached. If not, this pair might be in a slide for a while longer.
gbp-chf-05-11-4h-e.jpg
This 4H chart shows how close price came to testing important support of about 1.6600. This is very important, can decide direction of this cross for few more weeks. In this context, minor high described above becomes a key zone. Price has to go through that level, before heading higher. By this time tomorrow we should know more.

Mike K.

9
  • 1

    Eur/cad trade looks good to me, but your objective may be a little too big.

    Stan on May 11th, 2009
  • 2

    You may be right, but for now my target stays.

    admin on May 11th, 2009
  • 3

    What do you think Yen is going to do next? More move from yesterday or a reverse?

    Heather on May 11th, 2009
  • 4

    I see gbp-chf came within few pips of your objective and turned. Hope you made some pips there.

    Casey on May 11th, 2009
  • 5

    It depends what you mean by “next”, Heather. On Tuesday or following week? I’m looking for buys isung 1H charts.

    admin on May 11th, 2009
  • 6

    Casey, I’m out of it. It will be explained in the next post.

    admin on May 11th, 2009
  • 7

    I can’t believe how indecisive Pound is. One day it looks like it is ready to move and keep moving up for some time, next day it drops like a rock. Amazing. No surprise it is so difficult to make momny trading Forex.

    Andy on May 11th, 2009
  • 8

    It is not easy. And the Pound once again changes direction.

    admin on May 12th, 2009
  • 9

    […] currencies and right now Pound is falling yet again. But it was enough for my GBP-CHF trade from yesterday to reach objective and even exceed it. Chart is posted farther down this page. Japanese Yen had a […]

 

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