Gasoline prices set a new record today, not a record high, but a new mark for a duration of price increase. It seems retail gas prices climbed for the 50th straight day, the longest streak in records dating to 1996. This makes for a longer consecutive run that even during the oil mania from last year. Price is nowhere near 2008 levels, not yet anyways. At that time $5 was exceeded locally. Right now it is $3.10-3.20 so it has far to go. This doesn’t stop people from “predicting” new highs later in the summer.
To be sure, this uninterrupted streak of increases applies to street prices, not the exchange. During the same time Gasoline futures climbed from about $1.40 to $2.10. Great bull run, but it had a few loosing days mixed in it, as seen on the chart below. This chart is very interesting in itself, for a chartist and a technical trader. Price is rising in a very steady and measured pace. While it appears to be a overextended, it doesn’t have a signature of parabolic price run up. This, in turn, suggests no sudden price collapse any time soon. If anything, it is likely to continue higher or perhaps enter in sideways pattern. From this very perfunctory “analysis” of trend of July 2009 NYMEX NYH RBOB Gasoline I would wager that elevated prices are here to stay. At least through summer.

Now back to things I know a little more about. Yesterday couple of trades in Japanese Yen were covered. One was a longer term, sell of AUD-JPY using 4H chart. This trade is live and will probably remain so for a while. Target was large.
Another trade mentioned was in CAD-JPY, a follow up, if you will, to a one from day before.

Price moved against me, so after some deliberation, I added one more trade of the same size a little after London open. After that market cooperated. My original target was 83.50, but I closed both trades a little sooner. Two reasons: my position was twice the intended size, so I considered overall result good. Second reason was that my exposure to Yen pairs was too big with excessive number of trades. Not very prudent, so I compensated by closing them. The above mentioned AUD-JPY is the only one left now.
Kiwi remains weak, and I was obviously wrong in closing my NZD-CHF trade prematurely. Nothing to dwell on, these things happen to me all the time, imperfections, but I’ll try another NZD set up.

This cross looks to be ready to make another move up. I have a buy order at 2.6180, with a target of 2.6500. Now, this pair is notoriously difficult to trade and recently breakouts were rather shallow, quickly setting into trading ranges. With this in perspective, I don’t expect immediate results once the order is triggered. That would be a bonus. So, this trade is given a little more time than an average set up on hourly charts. Instead of say, 1-2 days, maybe as long as 3-4 days. But I like the probabilities here.

Mike K.