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June 25th, 2009 at 9:33 am

FED chairman grilled.

Chairman Bernanke finds himself in hot water.  Congress is investigating claims by Bank of America’s CEO Kenneth Lewis, that he, and his company, was forced into acquiring Merrill Lynch. According to earlier testimony by Lewis, Bernanke and former Treasury chief, Paulson, threatened him and BoA’s board of directors with ouster, should they not agree to the deal.
The Fed is accused of having deliberately kept other regulators in the dark regarding the negotiations with Bank of America. Supposedly there was a cover up by the Federal Reserve of important information. Also FED purposefully excluded key regulatory partners such as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. In principle, it looks that they didn’t have complete authority to make this deal.
At the moment this seems secondary to the “threats”, which are the gist of testimony. Bernanke denies to ever said anything of this nature, as well as instructing subordinates to convey such message. Interesting. Whatever the truth, this must be a very uncomfortable spot for FED chairman. I think there will be more of such investigations as congress is looking for scapegoats to current financial crisis. After all it must be somebody’s fault, right?
As mentioned yesterday, here is a chart of the long term GBP-CHF trade. This pair showed a very sharp price run yesterday and I took partial profits.
gbp-chf-d-06-25-e.jpg

I closed half of my trade for 600 pips. The balance still waits for the original target- 1.8500. I can only hope it will be reached before my vacation.
Yesterday I waited for FED rate announcement before getting into any more trades. No major surprises from the statement, no major moves following it, no trades on my part. Didn’t do anything.
For the last trading day of the week I stay with NZD-JPY. Price seems to be at a point where it is going to decide which way to go, out of hourly congestion area. I’m placing one more sell order.
nzd-jpy-06-25.jpg

I don’t have any exceedingly strong convictions at this point, and don’t expect much excitement tomorrow. Must be tired. This sell order is placed at 60.90, with a 120 pips objective. My farther yen outlook will be reviewed over the weekend.
Canadian Dollar has not been in the news much, but its charts are very noticable- it fell like a rock against just about everything else.
eur-cad-06-25.jpg

At this point price has not reversed yet, but given the magnitude of preceding move, one might be coming soon. I chose EUR-CAD for a trailing sell order. Currently it is set at 1.5996. I don’t expect it to be filled tomorrow, most likely order will have to be moved if price makes new high, but this process starts somewhere. Should this order be executed, target would be 250 pips.   Now the waiting game.

Mike K.

8
  • 1

    I think this is funny, Bernanke on a hot seat.

    Andy on June 25th, 2009
  • 2

    So, 1.85 stands? These kind of trades are a little too long trade for me. I’d be jumping out on every pull back… Man, you started buying this pair at the beginning of the year and still going strong. Congrats!

    Heather on June 25th, 2009
  • 3

    Thanks. Yes, it’s been half a year of bullish run. And it probably is not over yet.

    admin on June 25th, 2009
  • 4

    This is a good trade in gbp/chf. I know you’ve had for some time and your target is 1.85. Do you think it is still a good idea to buy it at this level (1.7930)?

    Damian on June 26th, 2009
  • 5

    Damian,a lot depends on your time horizon and objective. Myself, if i didn’t have this longer term trade, would be looking for buys on hourly maybe 4H charts. Shorter trades with smaller targets.

    admin on June 26th, 2009
  • 6

    […] taken than in previous period. In fact, even the trade I’ve been going on and on lately, long GBP-CHF, is opened in another account. This one is trade-less for the time […]

  • 7

    […] trading for me, but I reviewed the few remaining long term trades, including the much talked about GBP-CHF trade. Half of it was closed last week, today I exited the balance of the […]

  • 8

    […] Pound-Swiss Franc is a cross that I have been trading a lot this year. Except for more recent history. I think current price level warrants a closer look at this pair and sketch out some likely next moves. After a prolonged up move, possible double top was formed at 1.81 area. Lately price fell to under 1.75, which is a strong support zone. This to some degree reinforced by presence of 100SMA, which often, but not always, causes reaction with price. If somebody is looking for a reversal of the daily trend, development of potential head and shoulder, or crown, could be seen here.  Typically, about 70-80% of the time, we should expect the price to form the missing part of either pattern, meaning that chances are good for a move up. There is no guarantee this will happen, price can just keep falling, that probabilities favor such outcome. […]

 

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