White House budget office released revised figures for anticipated future deficit. The cumulative total for period 2010 to 2019 is expected to exceed $9 trillion. This is roughly $2 trillion more than previous estimate made in May. This means that public debt will double over next decade. That much for being serious about fighting it, something we have heard from officials over and over. I find it sad that we can plan spending about $1 trillion a year we don’t have so far into the future. I can grasp this year and next, because of the stimulus packages and recession, but you have to draw the line somewhere. Will our creditors be told once again that their investments are safe?
At about the same time, president announced that he will keep Mr. Bernanke as FED Chairman for another term. He was credited with excellent job guiding country through current crisis. Blah, blah, blah, handshakes and smiles, hugs and kisses. So, what is most important for Mr. Chairman during second tenure? Printing more money, or getting serious about his concerns? In case anybody forgot, in June he was getting concerned about growing budget deficit. If this was indeed the case, by now he should be well in a stage of panic and histeria. It didn’t show in the photos from the announcement…
My own concerns are nowhere near the ones he’s facing. One of them is continued slump of the Pound. Well, it is not really a concern, as no big trades are riding on it now, but some are planned. Like the one in GBP-CHF from few posts back. So far Pound-Franc is nowhere near “returning”- that’s how I titled the post. No big deal, buy order keeps dropping lower, following the price. For now I’m tracking daily highs, as it was discussed originally.
For right now, order was moved down about 40 pips, to 1.7540, just above Monday high. Should Tuesday close right now, entry will be lowered to a high for today, which appears to be another 100 pips down. Objective will probably remain 200-250 pips. Once that happens, hopefully soon, exact numbers will be determined. For now I just keep watching it, with order entry management.
Few months ago I placed a trade in PLN, the Polish Zloty. It was in a EUR-PLN pair. Trade was positive, but short of intended objective. Since then Zloty was quietly getting stronger, reaching levels predicted at that time. It seems, strong performance by PLN is likely to go on. I’m going to try another trade, using different cross. Somebody asked about Zloty recently, that’s why this trade makes its way to the blog.
AUD-PLN has been drifting lower for a while. Recent attempt at rally failed and price is on the verge of making new low for the swing. My sell order is placed at 2.3690. Objective is 1200 pips. This is not a trade for the timid, initial stop is about even with the target. I’m being liberal here, but if the price starts going my way, S/L should get tighter. Much like the Norwegian krone trade, this must be given sufficient time also. Few weeks at least. Set ups from daily charts don’t get resolved in matter of hours.
Mike K.
You are really positive PLN. Thanks for posting it.
Hey. Pound looks really weak here. I just sold gbpchf at 1.7350. Think it is going much lower. Maybe 400-500 pips.
No problem, Renata. Now if it only worked.
Andy, I wish you luck with your trade. Hope you make some pips.
Benake keeps pulling us deeper and deeper down. The comments today by Mr. Barak will be etched next to the other one’s ‘Mission Accomplished.’
Wish I knew something about E European currencies, but it’s just too far out of my field of vision now. I did make a couple of small exotic trades with the mxn before and they worked out ok. The big swings are there more than with the g7 currencies, so it is interesting. Going long usd/mxn seems like it has been setting itself up since April, and it hasn’t started pricing in risk yet, from the graph. The bid/ask spreads are huge though, except during regular usa trading hours. gbp/jpy broke through support. Are you going to look for the big pips on it?
You fell strangly quiet about Yen. Lasy few weeks plenty of JPY trades were posted here, nothing now. You must be waiting for new developments. I noticed that when you stop talking about a currency, you are not sure and stop trading it. That aside, do you think it will get stronger or weaker?
Vlad, I’m not doing anything with yen pairs right now. No trades until Europen open. And I will be looking for small pips 1H, 15M charts, something in the range of of 50-100 pips. And most likely leave GBP-JPY alone altogether for now. Things just don’t fit in for me, so I’m not going to fight it.
Eeast and Central European currencies are not for active trading. PLN could conceivably be traded during Europen hours, but why bother? Only daily charts and 8H.
Michelle, looks like Yen wants get stronger. You are right, when I’m not sure about currency, I don’t initiate discussion. I’m not trying to have an opinion at all time, but wait for periods of time when things make some sense to me and then trade it. How has trading been for you lately?
Since our latest talk things have been surprisingly good. I’m taking very few trades but most of them have positive. Maybe this patience thing is finally kicking in? I’m contemplating starting a blog, but I’m afraid peoople will be laughing from my losses. What do you think?
Why would people make fun of loosing trades? Only people afraid to post loosers are the ones who are trying to sell something. I think it is good idea. One should keep trading journal, doesn’t have to be blog. I enjoy writing here and the interaction with those who take time to read it.
Mike, a lot of blogs by professional traders have a membership are, whith paid service. Do you have something like that? I can’t find it here.
No Norm, there is no membership area on this blog. Maybe, just maybe it will happen in the future, but not very soon.
[...] D.C. and passing Bernanke’s checks for crack or something. Normally we talk about him as FED Chairman, not as a victim of petty thieves. For some strange reason I find this situation [...]