Just like 2009 came to end. By that I mean my trading year. Last few short term trades were opened and closed, with positive results. For the most part, that is. While I still have few positions riding, just about everything that had been discussed on these pages was closed over last couple of days. Notable exception is my short gold position, but that transaction is based on weekly chart, so from the start estimated duration was measured in weeks. It will be discussed in more details when than is something to report. My portfolio also has few other long term trades in currencies, but they were not covered here, so not much point in bringing them up now.
Current period marks not only the end of the year, but also the end of the decade. This means that media will be publishing all kinds interesting material about financial markets. Something like “look back at first decade of the new millennium” or similar stories. I’ve already seen a piece about “decade of investment bubbles” and one could expect more reflective stories like that. They should provide great read for next new days or even weeks. Forex trading became accessible to retail investors during this time, outside of the real of futures. Currencies themselves underwent massive changes, with the introduction of Euro and other developments. I’m pretty sure that, going forward, it will become even more popular. Good times ahead.
Not that 2009 was bad. Quite the opposite- I have nothing to complain about. My trading was profitable, with wins far exceeding losses. Hope that everybody who followed this blog managed to squeeze a few pips out the market as well. If not, better luck in the future. It takes some time to become profitable trader, and once it happens one still must put in the work necessary to remain there. Nothing should be taken for granted- markets always evolve and we must keep pace with them. It is not an easy task, but can be enjoyable and has its rewards.
I have been following EUR-CAD for few days, with a loosing trade couple of days ago. Treacherous trading post from yesterday suggested another trade at 1.5033, with entry being lowered in step with falling market. Pair managed to turn around and I decided to use lower high at 1.4990. Original objective was to capture 50-70 pips and I settled for 60, closing position at 1.5050 very early on. Since then EUR-CAD had another spike up, so even if the trade was entered at original level, it still would have produced intended profit.
Another set up from yesterday was less productive. AUD-NZD tried to make a run, but it was stalled. This chart formed possible reversal bullish pattern, which I entered, only to see no follow through. At best it could classified as a sideways action, so I decided to close it on latest spike up at about break even, or rather -2 pips loss . No point fighting it. But frankly most interesting moves came in Pound pairs.
My focus was on short term Yen moves, which led me to the Beat, one of my favorite instruments to trade. As luck would have it, Pound staged an all out rally today, which supported my upside breakout trade in GBP-JPY. I set a buy order at 146.63 looking for 60 pips gain. it seemed ambitious at the time, and in all honest, 30-40 pips were expected. Much to my surprise, GBP is just getting stronger and objective was met, end passed easily. This is great for larger Pound picture, something I’ll be returning to in near future.
No more new trades now, I’m done for the year. In next few posts I’ll discuss some of the more interesting trades of 2009 as well as take a look at long term charts with next year in mind. So, stay tuned. Also, if somebody has ideas about what you’d like to see in this blog next year, let me know and I’ll try to work it in, my meager abilities permitting. Waiting for suggestions.






Mike, Happy New Year and I’ll join you again next year!
You crack ne up! “Your meager abilities”. Well, happy New Year! And even more pips in 2010, if at all possible.
Same to you!
Nice work, all the best in the upcoming year Mike! keep up the trading posts and screenshots!
First let me say I really appreciate you sharing your ideas and trades on this blog. It is my farvorite trading blog since I found it 6 months ago. As for a suggestion/ request, could you breifly desribe your overall methodolgy and the setups you look for on your price action trades (I realize alot of this may be found in old posts – and I will continue to go trough them trying to learn more.) Sometimes you take a breakout trade, sometimes it is a more like buying or selling an extreme expecting a reversal. Is there anything else involved in your thought process for deciding which trades to take and how to take them? For example the recent EUR/CAD trade – was it just that you considered it so oversold that you figured it had to reverse a bit? Do you quantify the oversold condition or is it just based on visual observation of the chart?
FYI – you are basicaly my trading mentor – anything you can share that would make me a better trader – I would appreciate it. Thanks
Thank you, guys. Jason, most of these trades are discretionary, not systematic so they don’t have fixed rules. I think that with EUR-CAD I started to look for reversal because it had already fallen about 1000 pips with one failed reversal attempt. For hourly chart of this pair it is a large move without some correction, so chances were fairly high for a bounce. It is not really quantifiable in a precise, statistical format. That’s because situations are never identical, only have similarities. Right now 4H chart is building a bottom, so I might take a trade to the upside using that time frame after new year.
Most of the trades are based on simple reversal pattern
http://fxmadness.com/2009/08/18/general/common-reversal-pattern/
I’ll try to cover other aspects as we get into 2010.