Finally had some time on Friday to trade in my normal fashion. I mean more transactions, normal position size etc. Turned out to be very interesting day, no matter what currency one focused on. We had Swiss Franc finally making a move against Euro, with biggest range day in some time and British Pound either found a bottom, or at least bounced very hard. Something I have been waiting for at least 2 weeks. More importantly, I was ready for it. And then there was Loonie, which had serious gyrations today.

After long spell of boring Fridays, markets are probably slowly returning to its normal pattern. Well, perhaps “normal” is not the correct term, nothing really is in trading, but let’s say, more typical behavior. This means very  active markets on the last day of the week. It doesn’t mean that every single Friday will be eventful, but most of them. Few months down the road when it is apparent to everybody, it will gradually change again, just like every other aspect of trading.

I will get to Canadian Dollar in a moment, but there was one more trade mentioned in the last post – short EUR-JPY. This pair was sold at 123.55, with 100 pips objective, which turned out to be overly optimistic. After a few tries, market turned around and trade was stopped out for 53 pips loss.

Market established multiple resistance points at 124/few pips higher, and after a while it started to look like an upside breakout scenario, so I took it. Trade produced 80 pips, targeting the “figure” – round number, or 125. At this time I don’t really have any opinion about Yen pairs. I’ll worry about them after the weekend.

Another trade from last post was possible sell in CAD-CHF. Possible, because this pair had meet some conditions first, which it did. Price undercut recent low of 1.0390, made a small run up, and broke to the downside. I was hoping for a bigger bounce, maybe to 1.0470, but it didn’t happen, so no sell there. However, I made one on the next swing down at 1.0382. After that all Loonie crosses went through a whipsaw, only close near daily price extreme. This trade is still live and will be discussed again next week.

The volatile behavior of CAD was better visible on hourly charts. EUR-CAD and especially GBP-CAD were very interesting to me. Moves finally came on Thursday with more action today.

First trade was on minor breakout, which hit the target for 100 pips. Got a little lucky there. Took the next breakout today, only to see it fall right away. Almost got stopped out, but the new low held. Price largely paused on 100 SMA, and as soon reversal pattern started to emerge, I entered another long. At this point risks on the second trade were marginal, so why not? By the end of the day, almost all losses were recovered and I closed both of the trades at decent profit from the second trade, while first one was almost break even. If it wasn’t for the the end of the week, first trade would still be open. As is, I’ll wait for the market to open and see what happens next (gaps, etc). Bias is bullish and for now only buys are considered.

After few failed trades in Pound, I have been following these pairs with ever lower buy orders and GBP-AUD finally paid off. First trade was on the move above insignificant high. My target was much higher, but when price stalled at 100 SMA, and it looked like that was it, trade was closed for +79 pips. Next trade came on a little better defined breakout and produced 100 pips. GBP-NZD was also game, but only one trade there. Decent close to otherwise bleak week. Have a great weekend!

Mike K.