No update yesterday for a very simple reason- blog software suffered major malfunction. I have no idea what happened, but spent last two days trying to figure out what was wrong, but couldn’t nail it. As a matter of fact, I’m not sure if it is fixed yet. My “computer guy” turned out to be of little help. He also couldn’t figure it out. I got so frustrated, that almost deleted the whole bloody mess, the blog. Changed my mind just in time. Will have somebody with supposedly real knowledge of WordPress look at it over the weekend. Very frustrating.
In the last post, Canada to raise rates, if anybody bothered to read it, I was searching for a trade going short Yen pairs. It was supposed to be a set up looking for fairly minor gains, using hourly chart. I posted GBP-JPY as an example, but most JPY crosses were on a watch list, except for CAD-JPY. Didn’t feel like touching it at all, right after that surge by Loonie. The move took place, pretty much as expected, but Pound was strong that day, so chart I chose to post didn’t produce a trade.
Price dipped under support ( blue eclipse), but it was today, after original set up played itself out on other Yen pairs- see next chart- so no trade here. However, price created well defined congestion zone. Since Fridays have been fairly active lately, this could happen tomorrow. This chart favors an upside breakout, though playing it both ways might better approach. I’m looking at both sides of congestion, with objective of about 125 pips, should the move happen.
This chart shows where the move happened couple of days ago. Beast never reached its sell level. Aussie-Yen moved nicely. My objective was small at 50 pips, but I cut it even shorter at 42, when price touched 100 SMA. Original objective was reached by price shortly after, if by a hair. For more about choosing objectives, read Setting targetd for currency trades, one of my older posts. I took two other trades, one in EUR-JPY, which brought 41 pips NZD-JPY, where I took 28 pips loss. Kiwi was also strong and the trend continues. Over all, nothing extraordinary, but positive results. Canadian Dollar might have a strong reaction on Friday, many important news releases. Should be interesting.
Mike K.
Hi, i got short at that level in gbp/jpy, and got burned. You sad that Pound was strong tht day, what did the pound do, so that you could have that idea. I really thought that was a good setup. What should i have been looking, so that it could be prevented.
Thanks
N. Saraiva
look at the two charts above. Area of interest was when AUD-JPY moved. At the same time, GBP-JPY didn’t come to that level. Aussie- JPY reached target (or just about), so I considered that set up “played out”. It was in other yen pairs, like EUR-JPY, too. As I mentioned in the post, I also shorted NZD-JPY, which brought minor loss. Second move came next day, but I was not interested in it any more. Look and feel of the chart was different and I passed. Not that I knew anything, only it was past the entry I was looking for.
[...] so I’ll stay with that theme. These pairs built congestion zone over last few days and I was looking for a breakout from that pattern. While my sentiment was slightly bullish, I was ready for a move either way. Prices went [...]